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SPM is derived from the compound interest formula via the present value of a perpetuity equation. The derivation requires the additional variables X {\displaystyle X} and R {\displaystyle R} , where X {\displaystyle X} is a company's retained earnings, and R {\displaystyle R} is a company's rate of return on equity.
In financial economics, the dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing the price of a company's capital stock or business value based on the assertion that intrinsic value is determined by the sum of future cash flows from dividend payments to shareholders, discounted back to their present value.
MedICT has chosen the perpetuity growth model to calculate the value of cash flows beyond the forecast period. They estimate that they will grow at about 6% for the rest of these years (this is extremely prudent given that they grew by 78% in year 5), and they assume a forward discount rate of 15% for beyond year 5. The terminal value is hence:
Here various adjustments to the balance sheet book value may be required; [1] see Clean surplus accounting. More typically, the company is assumed to achieve maturity or "constant growth", at time , and the below formulae are applied instead. [2] (Note that the value will remain identical: the adjustment is a "telescoping" device).
When the dividend payout ratio is the same, the dividend growth rate is equal to the earnings growth rate. Earnings growth rate is a key value that is needed when the Discounted cash flow model, or the Gordon's model is used for stock valuation. The present value is given by:
In Excel, the PV and FV functions take on optional fifth argument which selects from annuity-immediate or annuity-due. An annuity-due with n payments is the sum of one annuity payment now and an ordinary annuity with one payment less, and also equal, with a time shift, to an ordinary annuity.
Flowchart for a typical DCF valuation, with each step detailed in the text (click on image to see at full size) Here, a spreadsheet valuation, uses Free cash flows to estimate stock's Fair Value and measure the sensitivity of WACC and Perpetual growth
The present value of a perpetuity can be calculated by taking the limit of the above formula as n approaches infinity. =. Formula (2) can also be found by subtracting from (1) the present value of a perpetuity delayed n periods, or directly by summing the present value of the payments