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The second factor in the numerator is simply 1 / 4 , the probability of having two boys. The first term in the numerator is the probability of at least one boy born on Tuesday, given that the family has two boys, or 1 − (1 − ε) 2 (one minus the probability that neither boy is born on Tuesday). For the denominator, let us decompose:
The fraternal birth order effect has been described by one of its proponents as "the most consistent biodemographic correlate of sexual orientation in men". [5] In 1958, it was reported that homosexual men tend to have a greater number of older siblings (i.e., a 'later/higher birth order') than comparable heterosexual men and in 1962, these findings were published in detail. [6]
Tissot had merely misunderstood my remarkable Paradox of the Twins, which states that if a boy tells you he has a sibling, then the probability of it being a sister is not a half, but two thirds." [ 72 ] This is followed by a version of the unexpected hanging paradox .
The probability of no two people sharing the same birthday can be approximated by assuming that these events are independent and hence by multiplying their probability together. Being independent would be equivalent to picking with replacement, any pair of people in the world, not just in a room. In short 364 / 365 can be multiplied by ...
To be sure, the probability space does illustrate four ways of having these two children: boy-boy, girl-boy, boy-girl, and girl-girl. But once it is known that at least one of the children is female, this rules out the boy-boy scenario, leaving only three ways of having the two children: boy-girl, girl-boy, girl-girl.
Each scenario has a 1 / 6 probability. The original three prisoners problem can be seen in this light: The warden in that problem still has these six cases, each with a 1 / 6 probability of occurring. However, the warden in the original case cannot reveal the fate of a pardoned prisoner.
But the boy’s death haunts him, mired in the swamp of moral confusion and contradiction so familiar to returning veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is what experts are coming to identify as a moral injury: the pain that results from damage to a person’s moral foundation. In contrast to Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, which ...
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