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Why do Americans love political predictions? Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman answers questions during an interview with AFP in Bethesda, Md. on Sept. 7, 2024.
The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
Split Ticket is an American political forecasting website that was founded in 2021. The website predicts elections for the United States presidential election by state, the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and gubernatorial elections.
On November 6, 2024, contrary to Lichtman's prediction, Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. [8] This was the first time Lichtman failed to correctly predict both the popular vote and the Electoral College outcome. He admitted to being wrong and said he would address his theory's failure the next day on his YouTube channel. [56]
A notable elections forecaster predicted Vice President Harris will win November’s election, according to his model of 13 keys. Allan Lichtman, a historian who has successfully predicted the ...
RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news website and polling data aggregator. ... RCP's final prediction closely aligned with the actual results, as ...
Researchers, however, have long studied political prediction markets. The University of Iowa has operated the Iowa Electronic Markets, which offers contracts on the outcomes of political events ...
More: Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick Why do Americans love political predictions? Lichtman’s work isn’t your average academic ...