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Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton , but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [70] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.
When we find fewer than five polls in 2016 or fewer than two polls since July 2016, we use Cook Political Report ratings to estimate where the race stands. We run the simulations out to Election Day, Nov. 8. Since we don’t have polling data for the future, the model assumes voter intentions generally continue along their current trajectories.
The 2016 election marked the eighth consecutive presidential election where the victorious major party nominee did not receive a popular vote majority by a double-digit margin over the losing major party nominee(s), with the sequence of presidential elections from 1988 through 2016 surpassing the sequence from 1876 through 1900 to become the ...
Election 2016 Presidential Forecast. ... Senate Forecast. Percent of simulations where each party gains control of Senate. Dem. 71%. 50/50 Split. 22% (VP determines
Senate. Chance each party controls Senate. Dem 50/50 Split GOP; 71%: 22%: 7%: See full calculations »
Forecasts for 2014’s races for governor, based on HuffPost Pollster’s poll-tracking model 06/19 Hospice, Inc. A Huffington Post investigation into the business of dying
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.