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Any non-linear differentiable function, (,), of two variables, and , can be expanded as + +. If we take the variance on both sides and use the formula [11] for the variance of a linear combination of variables (+) = + + (,), then we obtain | | + | | +, where is the standard deviation of the function , is the standard deviation of , is the standard deviation of and = is the ...
Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
Circular bivariate normal distribution 20 hits distribution example. The original concept of CEP was based on a circular bivariate normal distribution (CBN) with CEP as a parameter of the CBN just as μ and σ are parameters of the normal distribution.
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For example, if the length measurement L was high by ten percent, then the estimate of g would also be high by ten percent. If the period T was underestimated by 20 percent, then the estimate of g would be overestimated by 40 percent (note the negative sign for the T term).
The following example illustrates this by applying the second SMAPE formula: Over-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 110 give SMAPE = 4.76% Under-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 90 give SMAPE = 5.26%.
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