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[538 30] Following a number of preview posts in January [538 31] and February, [538 32] Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry [538 33] [538 34] [538 35] and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats, [538 36] while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman [b] developed a seat projection model.
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
One question that we sometimes get is whether polling averages like 538's are biased toward Trump because of the influx of polls conducted by Republican-aligned firms.
You can check which is which by looking them up on 538's pollster ratings page. If a pollster has a 3.0 rating, you should take it pretty seriously; if it has a 0.5 rating, it's not very reliable ...
538 appears to be the most comprehensive analysis of polling and uses more metrics than simply bias and accuracy. Being owned by a WP:RS (ABC) also helps. Silver's analysis is a blog post focusing on fewer pollsters with fewer variables, not a comprehensive updated ranking.
Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona ...