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[538 30] Following a number of preview posts in January [538 31] and February, [538 32] Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry [538 33] [538 34] [538 35] and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats, [538 36] while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman [b] developed a seat projection model.
[3] [104] Silver retained the IP of 538's election forecasting model as he left, [105] and in June 2024, released his own election forecasting model at Silver Bulletin, using methodology similar to his model at 538. [3] [106] In June 2024, Silver joined the prediction market startup Polymarket as an advisor. [4]
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Journalist and political analyst John Heilemann characterized Trump as liberal on social issues, [37] while conservative talk radio host and political commentator Rush Limbaugh said that Heilemann is seeing in Trump what he wants to see. [38] Since he became president, commentators have generally characterized his policy agenda as socially ...
Much has changed since President-elect Donald Trump first entered the White House in 2017. According to 538's average of polls of Trump's favorability rating, 47.2 percent of American adults have ...
The Republican Party in the United States includes several factions, or wings.During the 19th century, Republican factions included the Half-Breeds, who supported civil service reform; the Radical Republicans, who advocated the immediate and total abolition of slavery, and later advocated civil rights for freed slaves during the Reconstruction era; and the Stalwarts, who supported machine ...