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Counterfactual thinking is a concept in psychology that involves the human tendency to create possible alternatives to life events that have already occurred; something that is contrary to what actually happened.
Counterfactual history distinguishes itself through its interest in the very incident that is being negated by the counterfactual, thus seeking to evaluate the event's relative historical importance. Historians produce arguments subsequent changes in history, outlining each in broad terms only, since the main focus is on the importance and ...
A counterfactual statement is a conditional statement with a false antecedent. For example, the statement "If Joseph Swan had not invented the modern incandescent light bulb, then someone else would have invented it anyway" is a counterfactual, because, in fact, Joseph Swan invented the modern incandescent light bulb. The most immediate task ...
One is the past perfect counterfactual, which contrasts with indicatives and simple past counterfactuals in its use of pluperfect morphology: [5] Past perfect counterfactual: If it had been raining yesterday, then Sally would have been inside. Another kind of conditional uses the form "were", generally referred to as the irrealis or subjunctive ...
The ancient Greek δείκνυμι, deiknymi, 'thought experiment', "was the most ancient pattern of mathematical proof", and existed before Euclidean mathematics, [7] where the emphasis was on the conceptual, rather than on the experimental part of a thought experiment.
However, much of the existing literature (e.g. NONIE Guidelines on Impact Evaluation [28]) adopts the OECD-DAC definition of impact while referring to the techniques used to attribute impact to an intervention as necessarily based on counterfactual analysis. What is missing from the term 'impact' evaluation is the way 'impact' shows up long-term.
This chapter examines the third rung of the ladder of causation: counterfactuals. The chapter introduces 'structural causal models', which allow reasoning about counterfactuals in a way that traditional (non-causal) statistics does not. Then, the applications of counterfactual reasoning are explored in the areas of climate science and the law.
The mental model theory of reasoning was developed by Philip Johnson-Laird and Ruth M.J. Byrne (Johnson-Laird and Byrne, 1991). It has been applied to the main domains of deductive inference including relational inferences such as spatial and temporal deductions; propositional inferences, such as conditional, disjunctive and negation deductions; quantified inferences such as syllogisms; and ...