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Over the past century, scientists have only observed five magnitude-9.0 or higher earthquakes — all megathrust temblors like the one predicted for the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
Northern California has an estimated 12% chance over the same 30 years of an M ≥ 8 megathrust earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone. [6] UCERF has also prepared "participation probability maps" [7] of the chance that any area will experience an earthquake above a certain magnitude from any source in the next 30 years (see figure).
The last known great earthquake in the northwest was the 1700 Cascadia earthquake, 325 years ago. Geological evidence indicates that great earthquakes (> magnitude 8.0) may have occurred sporadically at least seven times in the last 3,500 years, suggesting a return time of about 500 years.
Friday marked the 324th anniversary of the last Great Cascadia earthquake, an estimated 8.7 to 9.2 megaquake that rattled the Pacific Northwest and caused major tsunamis across the Pacific.
[1] [2] The stated mission of the center [3] is to (i) carry out basic and applied science research on earthquake hazards at the Cascadia Subduction Zone, (ii) promote access to careers in the geosciences, especially amongst minoritized individuals, and (iii) form partnerships between researchers and organizations in charge of response and ...
The University of Oregon's earthquake research center will bring together 16 institutions to research earthquakes and the Cascadia subduction zone.
Kagan & Knopoff (1987, p. 1563) define prediction (in part) "to be a formal rule where by the available space-time-seismic moment manifold of earthquake occurrence is significantly contracted ...."</ref> [2] Both forecasting and prediction of earthquakes are distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which, upon detection of an earthquake ...
Nov. 15—OLYMPIA — The big one. The 9.0 magnitude Cascadia earthquake that experts say will change the West Coast forever. No one knows when, but scientists are pretty certain it will hit.