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  2. US 2025 Recession Odds Plummet: Good News Or Warning Sign? - AOL

    www.aol.com/us-2025-recession-odds-plummet...

    In June 2023, the New York Fed’s model — which calculates recession probabilities based on the yield spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and three-month bills — estimated a 70% chance of a ...

  3. Is the U.S. headed for a recession? Here's what the experts say.

    www.aol.com/u-headed-recession-heres-experts...

    Typically, a recession is defined by a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months, the NBER says. But the U.S. economy is still chugging along, with second-quarter GDP growing ...

  4. The Fed Just Shared Its Recession Outlook, and It's Actually ...

    www.aol.com/fed-just-shared-recession-outlook...

    The fact that a near-term recession is not on the Fed's radar is a positive thing. But it's a good idea to always be ready to cope with a recession by taking the above steps.

  5. One chart shows why an official recession call isn't coming ...

    www.aol.com/finance/recession-one-chart-shows...

    The NBER officially calls U.S. recessions, and data from Bank of America shows why this group won't be in a rush to declare the U.S. economy in recession.

  6. This recession indicator is flashing red, but the ‘Sahm Rule ...

    www.aol.com/finance/accurate-recession-indicator...

    While it may be premature to declare a recession has begun, one thing was clear after Friday’s jobs report and the triggering of the Sahm Rule: The likelihood of an economy- and market-juicing ...

  7. Top economist explains why she’s sticking with her recession ...

    www.aol.com/finance/top-economist-explains-why...

    To avoid a recession, the U.S. economy will need to hope two bills currently being debated in Congress—a proposed tax cut and military aid for Ukraine and Israel—get passed, says Piper Sandler ...

  8. Why the economy might be in a 'rolling recession'

    www.aol.com/finance/why-economy-might-rolling...

    The much-anticipated recession of 2023 has yet to materialize. Some of the latest economic data point to more signs of strength than weakness. One strategist has a term for what that says about ...

  9. Why recession odds just spiked after Powell addressed ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/finance/why-recession-odds-just...

    Today's newsletter is by Jared Blikre, a reporter focused on the markets on Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @SPYJared . Read this and more market news on the go with the Yahoo Finance App .