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A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events".It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.
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Hari Seldon is a fictional character in the Foundation series of novels by Isaac Asimov.In his capacity as mathematics professor at Streeling University on the planet Trantor, Seldon develops psychohistory, an algorithmic science that allows him to predict the future in probabilistic terms.
The first dynamical hurricane track forecast model, the Sanders Barotropic Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Model (SANBAR), [9] was introduced in 1970 and was used by the National Hurricane Center as part of its operational track guidance through 1989.
Lewis Fry Richardson, FRS [1] (11 October 1881 – 30 September 1953) was an English mathematician, physicist, meteorologist, psychologist, and pacifist who pioneered modern mathematical techniques of weather forecasting, and the application of similar techniques to studying the causes of wars and how to prevent them.