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The spread between 2 and 10-year Treasuries has been inverted since last July. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.6 basis ...
The economic data published on FRED are widely reported in the media and play a key role in financial markets. In a 2012 Business Insider article titled "The Most Amazing Economics Website in the World", Joe Weisenthal quoted Paul Krugman as saying: "I think just about everyone doing short-order research — trying to make sense of economic issues in more or less real time — has become a ...
While the Fed's benchmark rate influences home borrowing costs, mortgages are also impacted by broader economic trends and changes in the yield for the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond.
[2] [3] To determine whether the yield curve is inverted, it is a common practice to compare the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to either a 2-year Treasury note or a 3-month Treasury bill. If the 10-year yield is less than the 2-year or 3-month yield, the curve is inverted. [4] [5] [6] [7]
However the 10-year vs 3-month portion did not invert until March 22, 2019 and it reverted to a positive slope by April 1, 2019 (i.e. only 8 days later). [25] [26] The month average of the 10-year vs 3-month (bond equivalent yield) difference reached zero basis points in May 2019. Both March and April 2019 had month-average spreads greater than ...
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The consumer price index released on October 10 showed inflation cooling to its lowest level since February 2021, with a 2.4% year-over-year increase in consumer prices in September, down from 2.5 ...
Unlike the similar but less comprehensive Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City that uses only 11 variables, this index uses 18 weekly data series that include seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators to capture some element of financial stress: