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  2. Temporal difference learning - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporal_difference_learning

    Temporal difference (TD) learning refers to a class of model-free reinforcement learning methods which learn by bootstrapping from the current estimate of the value function. These methods sample from the environment, like Monte Carlo methods , and perform updates based on current estimates, like dynamic programming methods.

  3. Economic forecasting - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_forecasting

    Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms.

  4. Psychophysiological economics - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychophysiological_economics

    Psychophysiological economics differs from behavioral economics by focusing on direct measures of physiological change and observational data, in addition to attitudinal measurement. Psychophysiological economics also differs from functional magnetic resonance imaging , which is typically applied exclusively to the study of brain activity.

  5. Behavioral economics - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics

    Behavioral economics is the study of the psychological (e.g. cognitive, behavioral, affective, social) factors involved in the decisions of individuals or institutions, and how these decisions deviate from those implied by traditional economic theory. [1] [2] Behavioral economics is primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality of economic ...

  6. Affective forecasting - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_forecasting

    In The Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759), Adam Smith observed the personal challenges, and social benefits, of hedonic forecasting errors: [Consider t]he poor man's son, whom heaven in its anger has visited with ambition, when he begins to look around him, admires the condition of the rich …. and, in order to arrive at it, he devotes himself for ever to the pursuit of wealth and greatness….

  7. Consensus forecast - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consensus_forecast

    A consensus forecast is a prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies. They are used in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, and are also known as combining forecasts, forecast averaging or model averaging (in econometrics and statistics) and committee machines, ensemble ...

  8. Rational expectations - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_expectations

    Under adaptive expectations, if the economy suffers from a prolonged period of rising inflation, people are assumed to always underestimate inflation. Many economists suggested that it was an unrealistic and irrational assumption, as they believe that rational individuals will learn from past experiences and trends and adjust their predictions ...

  9. Survey of Professional Forecasters - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survey_of_Professional...

    The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the economy of the United States issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It is the oldest such survey in the United States. The survey includes an "anxious index" that estimates the probability of a decline in real GDP. [1]