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In time series analysis, a fan chart is a chart that joins a simple line chart for observed past data, by showing ranges for possible values of future data together with a line showing a central estimate or most likely value for the future outcomes. As predictions become increasingly uncertain the further into the future one goes, these ...
This is an important technique for all types of time series analysis, especially for seasonal adjustment. [2] It seeks to construct, from an observed time series, a number of component series (that could be used to reconstruct the original by additions or multiplications) where each of these has a certain characteristic or type of behavior.
Control charts are graphical plots used in production control to determine whether quality and manufacturing processes are being controlled under stable conditions. (ISO 7870-1) [1] The hourly status is arranged on the graph, and the occurrence of abnormalities is judged based on the presence of data that differs from the conventional trend or deviates from the control limit line.
The window "slides" across the time series, one time step at a time. The evidence for a step is tested by statistical procedures, for example, by use of the two-sample Student's t-test. Alternatively, a nonlinear filter such as the median filter is applied to the signal. Filters such as these attempt to remove the noise whilst preserving the ...
Cointegration is a crucial concept in time series analysis, particularly when dealing with variables that exhibit trends, such as macroeconomic data. In an influential paper, [1] Charles Nelson and Charles Plosser (1982) provided statistical evidence that many US macroeconomic time series (like GNP, wages, employment, etc.) have stochastic trends.
In both unit root and trend-stationary processes, the mean can be growing or decreasing over time; however, in the presence of a shock, trend-stationary processes are mean-reverting (i.e. transitory, the time series will converge again towards the growing mean, which was not affected by the shock) while unit-root processes have a permanent ...
The intuition behind the test is that if the series is characterised by a unit root process, then the lagged level of the series will provide no relevant information in predicting the change in besides the one obtained in the lagged changes ().
Pearson's correlation coefficient is the covariance of the two variables divided by the product of their standard deviations. The form of the definition involves a "product moment", that is, the mean (the first moment about the origin) of the product of the mean-adjusted random variables; hence the modifier product-moment in the name.