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The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE, [1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio, [2] is a stock valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings ( moving average ), adjusted for inflation. [ 3 ]
A lower ratio than 1.00 indicates an undervalued stock and a value above 1.00 indicates overvalued. The P/E ratio used in the calculation may be projected or trailing, and the annual growth rate may be the expected growth rate for the next year or the next five years.
Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P composite real price–earnings ratio and interest rates (1871–2012), from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed. [1] In the preface to this edition, Shiller warns that "the stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price–earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing [2005], in the mid-20s, far higher than the historical average
A ratio of two averages over the same domain is also always computed as the ratio of two integrals or sums. Yet more specifically, for a real function on an ordered set T {\displaystyle T} (e.g. a price curve), one may consider that function's gradient g {\displaystyle g} , or some weighted variant thereof.
Earnings per share (EPS) is the monetary value of earnings per outstanding share of common stock for a company during a defined period of time. It is a key measure of corporate profitability, focusing on the interests of the company's owners (shareholders), [1] and is commonly used to price stocks.
Graham later revised his formula based on the belief that the greatest contributing factor to stock values (and prices) over the past decade had been interest rates. In 1974, he restated it as follows: [4] The Graham formula proposes to calculate a company’s intrinsic value as:
Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P 500 price–earnings ratio (P/E) versus long-term Treasury yields (1871–2012), from Irrational Exuberance. [1]The P/E ratio is the inverse of the E/P ratio, and from 1921 to 1928 and 1987 to 2000, supports the Fed model (i.e. P/E ratio moves inversely to the treasury yield), however, for all other periods, the relationship of the Fed model fails; [2] [3] even ...
Change in Leverage (long-term) ratio (1 point if the ratio is lower this year compared to the previous one, 0 otherwise); Change in Current ratio (1 point if it is higher in the current year compared to the previous one, 0 otherwise); Change in the number of shares (1 point if no new shares were issued during the last year); Operating Efficiency