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Trafalgar's sampling methods have resulted in consistent response rates of around 1.37-1.46% for recent Trafalgar Group polls. [6] Trafalgar Group creates its samples intending to account for a "social desirability bias" effect, the hypothesized tendency of some voters to calibrate their responses to polls towards what they believe the survey ...
The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. The polls included are among Republicans or Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters is prioritized, then registered voters, then adults.
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
Former President Trump has a 2.2 percentage point lead over Vice President Harris in the critical swing state of Michigan, a new poll found. The survey, released Wednesday by the Trafalgar Group ...
Trafalgar Group surveys of Michigan and Wisconsin show the Republican presidential nominee with a narrow lead ... Trafalgar’s Wisconsin poll of 1,086 likely voters was also conducted between ...
The Trafalgar Group survey asked voters in the critical swing state whom they would cast their ballot for if the election were tomorrow. The numbers show Trump with a 1.1 percentage point ...
The Bullfinch Group [78] [M] September 26–29, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 50%: 46% 4% Trafalgar Group (R) [79] September 26–29, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 48%: 7% [d] Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R) [80] [N] September 23–29, 2024 408 (LV) ± 4.9% 48%: 48%: 4% Emerson College [81] [E] September 27–28, 2024 1,000 (LV ...
Five new polls from Pennsylvania give Democratic Sen. Bob Casey a 1- to 5-point lead in the Keystone State, while one poll from The Hill and Emerson College indicates the race is tied with a +/- 3 ...