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Aside from Fox News, Trafalgar had reported the most accurate poll in Virginia, predicting Glenn Youngkin would win by 2, which he did by 1.9. In New Jersey, Trafalgar had Phil Murphy winning the election but gave him the smallest margin of the polls, with only 4%, while Murphy won by 2.8%
The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. The polls included are among Republicans or Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters is prioritized, then registered voters, then adults.
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
Assessing the accuracy of polls is much more complicated than it looks. Some were clearly off. Ann Selzer is a fine pollster, ...
There are 17 days remaining from Election Day. As the date is closer to arriving, more polls will come out. However, the reliability of the polls has been questioned recently.
As the chart below shows, the states with the most accurate polls are generally also the ones that have been polled most often. Just like your childhood piano teacher taught you, practice makes ...
The Republican National Committee determined that candidates must qualify for the first primary debate by polling above 1% in three national polls since July 2023 – or in two national polls and one poll from two different early primary states (of which the polls must meet committee standards) – as well as attract donations from at least 40,000 individuals, with at least 200 from each of 20 ...
Trafalgar’s Wisconsin poll of 1,086 likely voters was also conducted between Sept. 28 and 30, and it’s more of a mixed bag for Republicans, showing some Trumpers aren’t sold on Senate ...