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In probability theory, odds provide a measure of the probability of a particular outcome. Odds are commonly used in gambling and statistics.For example for an event that is 40% probable, one could say that the odds are "2 in 5", "2 to 3 in favor", or "3 to 2 against".
The corresponding probability of the value labeled "1" can vary between 0 (certainly the value "0") and 1 (certainly the value "1"), hence the labeling; [2] the function that converts log-odds to probability is the logistic function, hence the name.
The "68–95–99.7 rule" is often used to quickly get a rough probability estimate of something, given its standard deviation, if the population is assumed to be normal. It is also used as a simple test for outliers if the population is assumed normal, and as a normality test if the population is potentially not normal.
If p is a probability, then p/(1 − p) is the corresponding odds; the logit of the probability is the logarithm of the odds, i.e.: = = = = (). The base of the logarithm function used is of little importance in the present article, as long as it is greater than 1, but the natural logarithm with base e is the one most often used.
An odds ratio (OR) is a statistic that quantifies the strength of the association between two events, A and B. The odds ratio is defined as the ratio of the odds of event A taking place in the presence of B, and the odds of A in the absence of B. Due to symmetry, odds ratio reciprocally calculates the ratio of the odds of B occurring in the presence of A, and the odds of B in the absence of A.
Decimal odds are a single value, greater than 1, representing the amount to be paid out for each unit bet. For example, a bet of £40 at 6 − 4 (fractional odds) will pay out £40 + £60 = £100. The equivalent decimal odds are 2.5; £40 × 2.5 = £100. We can convert fractional to decimal odds by the formula D = (b + a) ⁄ b.
Don't rely on bloviating pundits to tell you who'll prevail on Hollywood's big night. The Huffington Post crunched the stats on every Oscar nominee of the past 30 years to produce a scientific metric for predicting the winners at the 2013 Academy Awards.
Log5 is a method of estimating the probability that team A will win a game against team B, based on the odds ratio between the estimated winning probability of Team A and Team B against a larger set of teams.