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Some pollsters also argued that the public’s interpretations of the polls and forecast models are more responsible for the perception that Trump outperforms the polls — rather than the numbers ...
Public polls had Trump trailing Biden by an average of 5 percentage points, consistently, during the final two months of the 2020 presidential campaign. But he ended up losing the key state of ...
Polls almost always undercount Trump’s support, leading him to drastically overperform pre-election assumptions. At this point in 2020, Trump trailed then-candidate Joe Biden by 7 points per the ...
Polls before the Nov. 5 vote had shown Trump trailing Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point, according to an average of dozens of national opinion polls compiled by 538, a ...
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
Former Vice President Joe Biden had been leading in most national polls, but President Donald Trump believed that the polls would underestimate him again. Although the polls had underestimated Trump's strength nationally and in Ohio, Florida, and Iowa, Biden won back the blue Midwestern states and made inroads in the Sun Belt to win the election.
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
If the polls are accurate, the battle between the former president and Vice President Harris will truly go down to the wire. But the… How pollsters are trying to get it right in the Trump-Harris ...