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A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
Overall, their superforecasters gave a median estimate of 9.05 percent for a catastrophe from whatever source by 2100 while the median according to the experts was 20 percent, with 95 percent confidence intervals of [6.13, 10.25] and [15.44, 27.60] percent for superforecasters and experts, respectively.
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U.S. farm industry groups want President-elect Donald Trump to spare their sector from his promise of mass deportations, which could upend a food supply chain heavily dependent on immigrants in ...
This form of simple trend extrapolation helps to direct attention towards the forces, which can change the projected pattern. A more elaborated curve that uses times series analysis can often reveal surprising historical and current data patterns. The qualitative trend analysis is one of the most demanding and creative methods in Futures Studies.
Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans is a 2019 nonfiction book by Santa Fe Institute professor Melanie Mitchell. [1] The book provides an overview of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and argues that people tend to overestimate the abilities of artificial intelligence.
HuffPost and The Chronicle made multiple efforts to obtain reports detailing athletics spending between 2010 and 2014 from all public institutions, but 33 did not respond by Oct. 15, 2015, the final date reports could be included in our analysis. Nine schools with incomplete data are noted in our Subsidy Scorecards.