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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Based on 538’s latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win. Two weeks ago, Harris had a 58-in-100 chance to win. Two ...
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. ... President betting odds from Smarkets, 538 ...
Looking at 538’s forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning ...
In the leadup to Biden's withdrawal, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election. [93] Silver criticized Morris's model, describing it as at best ignoring the polls and giving Biden positive odds merely due to his incumbency , and at worst as being "buggy".
These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. ... near-certain chance of ... 538 [147] through November 4 ...
[105] [110] After Biden withdrew from the race, 538 overhauled their model to put more emphasis on polls. [111] Silver's final forecast for the election gave Trump and Harris almost an exactly even chance of winning the Electoral College (50.015% for Harris, 49.985% for Trump). [112]
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds? ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls with 48.4% to Trump's 45.9% ... Who's winning presidential election? What polls ...