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Kagan & Knopoff (1987, p. 1563) define prediction (in part) "to be a formal rule where by the available space-time-seismic moment manifold of earthquake occurrence is significantly contracted ...."</ref> [2] Both forecasting and prediction of earthquakes are distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which, upon detection of an earthquake ...
In southern California about 6% of M≥3.0 earthquakes are "followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km." [12] In central Italy 9.5% of M≥3.0 earthquakes are followed by a larger event within 48 hours and 30 km. [13] While such statistics are not satisfactory for purposes of prediction (giving ten to twenty false ...
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During the same time frame, the technique also missed major earthquakes, in the sense that [32] "for earthquakes with Mb≥5.0, the ratio of the predicted to the total number of earthquakes is 6/12 (50%) and the success rate of the prediction is also 6/12 (50%) with the probability gain of a factor of 4. With a confidence level of 99.8%, the ...
However, insofar as a verifiable prediction would require a publicly stated announcement of the location, time, and size of an impending event before its occurrence, neither Quakefinder nor Heraud have yet verifiably predicted an earthquake, much less issued multiple predictions of the type that might be objectively testable for statistical ...
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Erroneous earthquake prediction Iben Browning (January 9, 1918 – July 18, 1991) was an American business consultant, author, and "self-proclaimed climatologist ." [ 1 ] : p. 2 He is most notable for having made various failed predictions of disasters involving climate , volcanoes , earthquakes , and government collapse.
A full fault rupture, estimated to be around a 7.5 magnitude, could kill between 3,000 and 18,000 people, according to US Geological Survey and Southern California Earthquake Center. Up to 735,000 ...