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A cursory analysis of US inflation and unemployment data from 1953 to 1992 shows no single curve will fit the data, but there are three rough aggregations—1955–71, 1974–84, and 1985–92—each of which shows a general, downwards slope, but at three very different levels with the shifts occurring abruptly.
The data for the misery index is obtained from unemployment data published by the U.S. Department of Labor and the Inflation Rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The exact methods used for measuring unemployment and inflation have changed over time, although past data is usually normalized so that past and future metrics are comparable.
Since World War II, the United States economy has performed significantly better on average under the administration of Democratic presidents than Republican presidents. The reasons for this are debated, and the observation applies to economic variables including job creation, GDP growth, stock market returns, personal income growth, and corporate profits.
Other data series are available back to 1912. The unemployment rate has varied from as low as 1% during World War I to as high as 25% during the Great Depression. More recently, it reached notable peaks of 10.8% in November 1982 and 14.7% in April 2020. Unemployment tends to rise during recessions and fall during expansions.
Line charts — Accepts up to six datasets. (updated 30 August 2023) Vertical bar charts (column charts) — Accepts up to six datasets. Toggle between clustered and stacked charts; user can adjust "Yfloor"—the Y level (usually=0) from which columns rise or fall; user chooses to keep or ignore negative input values. (updated 27 August 2023)
The best study of the inflation-unemployment trade-off finds that an increase in unemployment would reduce inflation by about one-third of 1%. Most other studies are in this ballpark.
Inflation vs. Wage Growth. Inflation doesn’t hurt as much if incomes grow faster than prices rise, which they did during Trump’s entire presidency. ... Federal Reserve data shows that for most ...
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, its highest level since November 2021. ... well below the historical average of 100 basis points. ... Economic data: New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations ...