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PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, [1] is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bill Pecota, who, with a lifetime batting average of .249, is perhaps representative of the typical PECOTA entry.
On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes. [78] Both in summary tables and in an electoral map, Silver forecast the winner of each state.
“In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver, whose model currently rates the ...
The first column of the renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus appeared in the Times on August 25, 2010, with the introduction of U.S. Senate election forecasts. At the same time, Silver published a brief history of the blog. [538 43] All columns from the original FiveThirtyEight were also archived for public access. [40]
The national polling average released by Silver on Sunday morning showed Harris over Trump 48.5% to 47.6%. But he cautioned his model doesn’t care about the national polls as much at this stage.
Silver markets have drifted a bit lower during the trading session on Tuesday in anticipation of the elections in the United States, but also I would point out that we are in a consolidation area ...
Nate Silver's The Signal and Noise is an excellent description of how prediction works. However, he purposefully leaves out the mathematics. However, he purposefully leaves out the mathematics. In 2012, after his triumph of predicting the outcome of the last two presidential elections and selling his "fivethirtyeight" blog to the New York Times ...
Going back several years, $15 has always caused a lot of noise. Silver markets rallied a bit to start the week, reaching towards the $15.55 level. This is a market that has been trying to form a ...
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