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Monte Carlo methods are mainly used in three distinct problem classes: optimization, numerical integration, and generating draws from a probability distribution. They can also be used to model phenomena with significant uncertainty in inputs, such as calculating the risk of a nuclear power plant failure.
Over the ensuing decades, many procedures were developed to address the problem. In 1996, the first international conference on multiple comparison procedures took place in Tel Aviv. [3] This is an active research area with work being done by, for example Emmanuel Candès and Vladimir Vovk.
A common example of a first-hitting-time model is a ruin problem, such as Gambler's ruin. In this example, an entity (often described as a gambler or an insurance company) has an amount of money which varies randomly with time, possibly with some drift. The model considers the event that the amount of money reaches 0, representing bankruptcy.
Simulation-based methods: Monte Carlo simulations, importance sampling, adaptive sampling, etc. General surrogate-based methods: In a non-instrusive approach, a surrogate model is learnt in order to replace the experiment or the simulation with a cheap and fast approximation. Surrogate-based methods can also be employed in a fully Bayesian fashion.
The simulation can be performed either by a solution of kinetic equations for probability density functions, [7] [8] or by using a stochastic sampling method. [6] [9] The method is an adaptation of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, a Monte Carlo method to generate sample states of a thermodynamic system, published by N. Metropolis et al. in ...
An important example of the use of Palm probabilities is Feller's paradox, often associated with the analysis of an M/G/1 queue. This states that the (time-)average time between the previous and next points in a point process is greater than the expected interval between points. The latter is the Palm expectation of the former, conditioning on ...
The secretary problem demonstrates a scenario involving optimal stopping theory [1] [2] that is studied extensively in the fields of applied probability, statistics, and decision theory. It is also known as the marriage problem , the sultan's dowry problem , the fussy suitor problem , the googol game , and the best choice problem .
These are easily computed, based on the observation that the probability that k observations in the sample will fall in an interval covering p of the range (0 ≤ p ≤ 1) is p k (assuming in this section that draws are with replacement, to simplify computations; if draws are without replacement, this overstates the likelihood, and intervals ...
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