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A worst-case scenario giant landslide like the one modelled by Ward and Day 2001 is a very low probability event, probably much less common than once per 100,000 years [118] which is the probable occurrence rate of large landslides in the Canary Islands.
In the worst-case scenario, an eruption could obliterate the entire town, wiping out schools, workplaces and cherished family homes. ... The most disruptive in recent times was the 2010 eruption ...
The area around the volcano is now densely populated. The government emergency plan for an eruption therefore assumes that the worst case will be an eruption of similar size and type to the 1631 VEI 4 [76] eruption. In this scenario, the volcano's slopes, extending out to about 7 kilometres (4.3 mi) from the vent, may be exposed to pyroclastic ...
Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo, Pierpaolo Petrone, Lucia Pappalardo and Michael F. Sheridan, The Avellino 3780-yr-B.P. Catastrophe as a Worst-Case Scenario for a Future Eruption at Vesuvius. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Vol. 103, No. 12 (Mar. 21, 2006), pp. 4366–4370
The volcano brings two major concerns: ash fall and mudflows. ... Then, a worst-case scenario is: It’s the middle of the night, and the weather’s awful, and here comes a lahar,” Malone said ...
The Armero tragedy, as the event came to be known, was the second-deadliest volcanic disaster of the 20th century, surpassed only by the 1902 eruption of Mount Pelée, [33] and is the fourth-deadliest volcanic eruption recorded since 1500 AD. [34] It is also the deadliest lahar, [35] and Colombia's worst natural disaster. [36]
The best-case scenario was deemed to be the activity ending, as happened after much activity on the 1980s. The worst would be an eruption like the one of 1538. A study by Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and University College London (UCL) in June 2023 concluded that the volcano was edging towards "breaking point ...
VEI. 2–3 [2] The 1669 eruption of Mount Etna is the largest-recorded historical eruption of the volcano on the east coast of Sicily, Italy. After several weeks of increasing seismic activity that damaged the town of Nicolosi and other settlements, an eruption fissure opened on the southeastern flank of Etna during the night of 10–11 March.