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Many algorithms to generate surrogate data have been proposed. They are usually classified in two groups: [4] Typical realizations: data series are generated as outputs of a well-fitted model to the original data. Constrained realizations: data series are created directly from original data, generally by some suitable transformation of it.
The series is expressed as the sum of deterministic trend, random walk, and stationary error, and the test is the Lagrange multiplier test of the hypothesis that the random walk has zero variance. KPSS-type tests are intended to complement unit root tests , such as the Dickey–Fuller tests .
Since the test is done over the residual term rather than raw data, it is not possible to use standard t-distribution to provide critical values. Therefore, this statistic has a specific distribution simply known as the Dickey–Fuller table. There are three main versions of the test: 1. Test for a unit root:
The first row shows the possible p-values as a function of the number of blue and red dots in the sample. Although the 30 samples were all simulated under the null, one of the resulting p-values is small enough to produce a false rejection at the typical level 0.05 in the absence of correction.
Ideally, unevenly spaced time series are analyzed in their unaltered form. However, most of the basic theory for time series analysis was developed at a time when limitations in computing resources favored an analysis of equally spaced data, since in this case efficient linear algebra routines can be used and many problems have an explicit ...
The Chow test (Chinese: 鄒檢定), proposed by econometrician Gregory Chow in 1960, is a statistical test of whether the true coefficients in two linear regressions on different data sets are equal. In econometrics, it is most commonly used in time series analysis to test for the presence of a structural break at a period which can be assumed ...
Fisher's exact test, based on the work of Ronald Fisher and E. J. G. Pitman in the 1930s, is exact because the sampling distribution (conditional on the marginals) is known exactly. This should be compared with Pearson's chi-squared test , which (although it tests the same null) is not exact because the distribution of the test statistic is ...
In both unit root and trend-stationary processes, the mean can be growing or decreasing over time; however, in the presence of a shock, trend-stationary processes are mean-reverting (i.e. transitory, the time series will converge again towards the growing mean, which was not affected by the shock) while unit-root processes have a permanent ...