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The unconditional expectation of rainfall for an unspecified day is the average of the rainfall amounts for those 3652 days. The conditional expectation of rainfall for an otherwise unspecified day known to be (conditional on being) in the month of March, is the average of daily rainfall over all 310 days of the ten–year period that fall in ...
Given two events A and B from the sigma-field of a probability space, with the unconditional probability of B being greater than zero (i.e., P(B) > 0), the conditional probability of A given B (()) is the probability of A occurring if B has or is assumed to have happened. [5]
If the conditional distribution of given is a continuous distribution, then its probability density function is known as the conditional density function. [1] The properties of a conditional distribution, such as the moments , are often referred to by corresponding names such as the conditional mean and conditional variance .
The conditional variance tells us how much variance is left if we use to "predict" Y. Here, as usual, E ( Y ∣ X ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} (Y\mid X)} stands for the conditional expectation of Y given X , which we may recall, is a random variable itself (a function of X , determined up to probability one).
In probability theory, conditional independence describes situations wherein an observation is irrelevant or redundant when evaluating the certainty of a hypothesis. . Conditional independence is usually formulated in terms of conditional probability, as a special case where the probability of the hypothesis given the uninformative observation is equal to the probability
Note that the conditional expected value is a random variable in its own right, whose value depends on the value of . Notice that the conditional expected value of given the event = is a function of (this is where adherence to the conventional and rigidly case-sensitive notation of probability theory becomes important!).
The proposition in probability theory known as the law of total expectation, [1] the law of iterated expectations [2] (LIE), Adam's law, [3] the tower rule, [4] and the smoothing theorem, [5] among other names, states that if is a random variable whose expected value is defined, and is any random variable on the same probability space, then
In probability theory, particularly information theory, the conditional mutual information [1] [2] is, in its most basic form, the expected value of the mutual information of two random variables given the value of a third.