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Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models only extends to about two weeks into the future, since the density and quality of observations—together with the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations used to calculate the forecast—introduce errors which double every five days ...
The global models are run at varying times into the future. The Met Office's Unified Model is run six days into the future, [55] the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is run out to 10 days into the future, [56] while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future. [57]
The model is designed to provide short-range hourly weather forecasts for North America. The Rapid Refresh was officially made operational on 1 May 2012, replacing the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC). The model also serves as the boundary conditions for the higher-resolution High Resolution Rapid Refresh ( HRRR ) model, that uses a 3 km (1.9 mi) grid ...
The Climate Forecast System or coupled forecast system (CFS) is a medium to long range numerical weather prediction and a climate model run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to bridge weather and climate timescales. [1] Version 2 became operational as CFSv2 in 2011. [2]
Numerical weather prediction models are equations describing the evolution of the atmosphere, typically coded into a computer program. When these models are used for forecasting the model output quickly deviates from the real atmosphere. Hence, we use observations of the atmosphere to keep the model on track.
In weather forecasting, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple linear regression technique in which predictands, often near-surface quantities (such as two-meter-above-ground-level air temperature, horizontal visibility, and wind direction, speed and gusts), are related statistically to one or more predictors.