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Aside from Fox News, Trafalgar had reported the most accurate poll in Virginia, predicting Glenn Youngkin would win by 2, which he did by 1.9. In New Jersey, Trafalgar had Phil Murphy winning the election but gave him the smallest margin of the polls, with only 4%, while Murphy won by 2.8%
The Trafalgar Group's polling numbers were mostly inaccurate in the 2022 United States midterm elections. [20] Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as Kari Lake, Mehmet Oz, Tim Michels, and Herschel Walker, would all win.
The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. According to NPR 's analysis, the states considered to be not strongly leaning in either direction are Arizona , Georgia , Michigan , Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin .
Suffice it to say, if polls are getting more or less accurate, the public needs to know. And now that the 2024 election is in the rearview mirror, we can take a rough first look at how accurate ...
There are 17 days remaining from Election Day. As the date is closer to arriving, more polls will come out. However, the reliability of the polls has been questioned recently.
Trafalgar’s Wisconsin poll of 1,086 likely voters was also conducted between Sept. 28 and 30, and it’s more of a mixed bag for Republicans, showing some Trumpers aren’t sold on Senate ...
The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. The polls included are among Republicans or Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters is prioritized, then registered voters, then adults.
Assessing the accuracy of polls is much more complicated than it looks. Some were clearly off. Ann Selzer is a fine pollster, ...