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Decimal odds are a single value, greater than 1, representing the amount to be paid out for each unit bet. For example, a bet of £40 at 6 − 4 (fractional odds) will pay out £40 + £60 = £100. The equivalent decimal odds are 2.5; £40 × 2.5 = £100. We can convert fractional to decimal odds by the formula D = (b + a) ⁄ b.
When the free bet is placed the other bookmakers or betting exchanges are used to hedge all the possible outcomes so that no matter what happens the value of the free bet is retained. At its simplest, a matched bet involves placing a back bet using the free bet at a bookmaker while placing the opposing lay bet at a betting exchange. More ...
Decimal odds are favoured by betting exchanges because they are the easiest to work with for trading, as they reflect the reciprocal of the probability of an outcome. [13] For example, a quoted odds of 5.00 equals to a probability of 1 / 5.00, that is 0.20 or 20%. Decimal odds are also known as European odds, digital odds or continental odds. [9]
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
Arbitrage betting involves relatively large sums of money, given that 98% of arbitrage opportunities return less than 1.2%. [2] The practice is sometimes detected by bookmakers, who often hold an unfavorable view of it, [3] and in the past this could result in half of an arbitrage bet being canceled, or in extreme cases, even the closure of the bettor's account.
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Various theories exist to explain why people willingly bet on such losing propositions, such as risk-loving behavior, risk-averse behavior [2] or simply inaccurate estimation as presented by Sobel and Raines. [3] Methods such as the goto_conversion, [4] Power [5] and Shin [6] can be used to measure the bias by converting betting odds to true ...