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When we find fewer than five polls in 2016 or fewer than two polls since July 2016, we use Cook Political Report ratings to estimate where the race stands. We run the simulations out to Election Day, Nov. 8. Since we don’t have polling data for the future, the model assumes voter intentions generally continue along their current trajectories.
Silver's final forecast also gave the advantage (i.e. greater than 50% odds of winning) to the eventual winner in 48 out of the 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia and all congressional districts awarding electoral votes. [117] Only Trump's victories in Michigan and Wisconsin did not occur in the majority of Silver's final simulations.
Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton , but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [70] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.
Election 2016 Presidential Forecast. Percent of simulations where each candidate becomes president. Clinton 98.0%. Trump 1.7%. How we calculate this » ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Senate. Chance each party controls Senate. Dem 50/50 Split GOP; 71%: 22%: 7%: See full calculations »
2016 Presidential Primaries. Live results and interactive maps of each race. ... 9/12 House Forecast. Polls, ratings and analysis of the 2012 House races. 8/12 Senate ...