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The forward curve is a function graph in finance that defines the prices at which a contract for future delivery or payment can be concluded today. For example, a futures contract forward curve is prices being plotted as a function of the amount of time between now and the expiry date of the futures contract (with the spot price being the price at time zero).
Compared to their futures counterparts, forwards (especially Forward Rate Agreements) need convexity adjustments, that is a drift term that accounts for future rate changes. In futures contracts, this risk remains constant whereas a forward contract's risk changes when rates change. [11]
For example, in gold futures trading, the margin varies between 2% and 20% depending on the volatility of the spot market. [2] A stock future is a cash-settled futures contract on the value of a particular stock market index. Stock futures are one of the high risk trading instruments in the market.
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Suppose there is constant risk-free interest rate r and the futures price F(t) of a particular underlying is log-normal with constant volatility σ. Then the Black formula states the price for a European call option of maturity T on a futures contract with strike price K and delivery date T' (with ′) is
The resulting futures or forward curve would typically be downward sloping (i.e. "inverted"), since contracts for further dates would typically trade at even lower prices. [2] In practice, the expected future spot price is unknown, and the term "backwardation" may refer to "positive basis", which occurs when the current spot price exceeds the ...
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where F is the current (time t) cost of establishing a futures contract, S is the current price (spot price) of the underlying stock, r is the annualized risk-free interest rate, t is the present time, T is the time when the contract expires and PV(Div) is the Present value of any dividends generated by the underlying stock between t and T.