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Turning back to the 2024 race and the most likely state to decide it, the 538 forecast’s current median projection f or Pennsylvania is about a 1-point victory for Harris. To be clear, that ...
Silver Bulletin, the independent site of former 538 chief Nate Silver, puts Harris’ polling average at 47.1%, 2.5 points ahead of Trump’s 44.6%, as of its latest update on Aug. 18.
As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, our forecast gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance to win the White House and Harris a near-identical 48-in-100 chance. The model arrives at that probability by ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Election guru Nate Silver revealed his latest forecast between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris with Election Day two days away.
This year, thanks to her stronger standing in state polls than in national ones, our forecast thinks Harris needs to win the national popular vote by only about 2.1 points in order to be favored ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks. The latest polls from the New York Times /Siena College have Harris ahead by 3 points, at 49 percent and ...