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Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton , but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
When we find fewer than five polls in 2016 or fewer than two polls since July 2016, we use Cook Political Report ratings to estimate where the race stands. We run the simulations out to Election Day, Nov. 8. Since we don’t have polling data for the future, the model assumes voter intentions generally continue along their current trajectories.
He later said that polls in 2016 did not account for education, meaning college educated voters were over-represented, which overstated the lead that Hillary Clinton actually had. [5] In March 2020, Morris and The Economist published a forecast for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the first major model predicting the election's outcome. [6]
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2016 United States presidential election.The persons named in the polls were either declared candidates, former candidates, or received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
Donald Trump has hit his highest chance of winning the 2016 election, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver.
Election 2016 Presidential Forecast. Percent of simulations where each candidate becomes president. Clinton 98.0%. Trump 1.7%. How we calculate this » ...
2016 was a year filled with twists, turns, 3 a.m. tweets and incorrect predictions -- mostly incorrectly betting against Donald Trump. The worst 2016 election predictions of the year Skip to main ...
Trump had big wins in swing states like Fla., NC, Iowa, Pa. and Wis. -- a surprisingly strong performance that defied most expectations.