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It is a one-factor model; that is, a single stochastic factor—the short rate—determines the future evolution of all interest rates. It was the first model to combine the mean-reverting behaviour of the short rate with the log-normal distribution, [1] and is still widely used. [2] [3]
John Hull and Alan White, "One factor interest rate models and the valuation of interest rate derivative securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol 28, No 2, (June 1993) pp. 235–254. John Hull and Alan White, "Pricing interest-rate derivative securities", The Review of Financial Studies, Vol 3, No. 4 (1990) pp. 573–592.
The key features of the model include the assumptions that goods' prices are sticky, or slow to change, in the short run, but the prices of currencies are flexible, that arbitrage in asset markets holds, via the uncovered interest parity equation, and that expectations of exchange rate changes are "consistent": that is, rational.
The fixed exchange rate was abandoned in favour of the floating exchange rate in July 2005, hours after China announced the same move. [52] At this point, the Ringgit was still not internationalised. The Ringgit continued to strengthen to 3.18 to the dollar by March 2008 and appreciated as low as 2.94 to the dollar in May 2011.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates at a 23-year high Wednesday while scaling back its estimate of rate cuts this year to one. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, lowers forecast to 1 ...
The currency's value fell from an average of 3.20 MYR/USD in mid-2014 to around 3.70 MYR/USD by early 2015; with China being Malaysia's largest trading partner, a Chinese stock market crash in June 2015 triggered another plunge in value for the ringgit, which reached levels unseen since 1998 at lows of 4.43 MYR/USD in September 2015, before ...
A consensus forecast is a prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies. They are used in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, and are also known as combining forecasts, forecast averaging or model averaging (in econometrics and statistics) and committee machines, ensemble ...
A Federal Reserve working paper [4] regarding support and resistance levels in short-term foreign exchange rates "offers strong evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend interruptions", although the "predictive power" of those levels was "found to vary across the exchange rates and firms examined".