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The Storm Prediction Center issues convective outlooks (AC), consisting of categorical and probabilistic forecasts describing the general threat of severe convective storms over the contiguous United States for the next six to 192 hours (Day 1 through Day 8). These outlooks are labeled and issued by day, and are issued up to five times per day.
A high risk severe weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for convective weather events in the United States. On the scale from one to five, a high risk is a level five; thus, high risks are issued only when forecasters at the SPC are confident of a major severe weather outbreak.
The Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook for March 24, 2023. On March 18, an upper-level trough was situated across the Western United States. [6] As time progressed, the trough began to progress to the east.
A deliberate decision to collocate research with operations led the National Severe Storms Forecast Center to move from Kansas City to Norman in 1997, changing its name to the Storm Prediction Center. [3] This move would allow for improved collaborations between NSSL and SPC.
High risk convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction center at 13:00 UTC on May 6. Starting April 30, the Storm Prediction Center noted that certain models, including the ECMWF, forecasted a multi-day period of high instability and supportive wind shear across the Southern and Central Plains, [10] and by May 1, a 15% risk was added across Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas. [11]
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center said there was a Level 4 "Severe" Geomagnetic Storm on Thursday night. This storm's intensity was a level less than the one that caused widespread auroras on May 10 .
This set the stage for a significant severe weather outbreak with the potential for strong and violent tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. [13] As a result, the Storm Prediction Center issued a rare high risk of severe weather for portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky, the first such issuance since April 26, 2009. [14]
A high risk of severe weather is a level 5 on the Storm Prediction Center's 0-5 scale. Monday is the first time in over a year the Storm Prediction Center has issued a high risk warning for severe ...