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The calculation for the output gap is (Y–Y*)/Y* where Y is actual output and Y* is potential output. If this calculation yields a positive number it is called an inflationary gap and indicates the growth of aggregate demand is outpacing the growth of aggregate supply—possibly creating inflation; if the calculation yields a negative number it is called a recessionary gap—possibly ...
Expansions after World War II may be compared to each other much more easily than previous expansions because of these available data. The listed dates and durations are from the official chronology of the National Bureau of Economic Research. [1] The National Bureau of Economic Research dates expansions on a monthly basis.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an intergovernmental organization, defines a recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative output gap reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year. [23]
An economic expansion is an upturn in the level of economic activity and of the goods and services available. It is a finite period of growth, often measured by a rise in real GDP, that marks a reversal from a previous period, for example, while recovering from a recession.
July 1990 marked the end of what was at the time the longest peacetime economic expansion in U.S. history. [2] [5] Prior to the onset of the early 1990s recession, the nation enjoyed robust job growth and a declining unemployment rate. The Labor Department estimates that as a result of the recession, the economy shed 1.623 million jobs or 1.3% ...
Friedman and Phelps used models with no long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Instead of the Phillips curve they used models based on the natural rate of unemployment where expansionary monetary policy can only temporarily shift unemployment below the natural rate. Eventually, firms will adjust their prices and wages for ...
Further, a one period change, that is unusual over the course of one or two years, is often relegated to “noise”; an example is a worker strike or an isolated period of severe weather. The individual episodes of expansion/recession occur with changing duration and intensity over time.
One way to calculate Gross Domestic Product, or total net output, is the expenditure method. The GDP essentially tells you how big the economy is. The larger the GDP value, the bigger the economy. The expenditure approach involves looking at four main components: Consumer Spending, Government Spending, Investment Spending, and Net Exports. [18]