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An economic expansion is an upturn in the level of economic activity and of the goods and services available. It is a finite period of growth, often measured by a rise in real GDP, that marks a reversal from a previous period, for example, while recovering from a recession.
Expansions after World War II may be compared to each other much more easily than previous expansions because of these available data. The listed dates and durations are from the official chronology of the National Bureau of Economic Research. [1] The National Bureau of Economic Research dates expansions on a monthly basis.
It is clear that the revised data have made our original March date for the start of the recession much too late. We are still waiting for additional monthly data before making a final judgment. Until we have the additional data, we cannot make a decision. [8] However, in 2008, the NBER confirmed that the recession started in March 2001. [9]
The GDP gap or the output gap is the difference between actual GDP or actual output and potential GDP, in an attempt to identify the current economic position over the business cycle. The measure of output gap is largely used in macroeconomic policy (in particular in the context of EU fiscal rules compliance). The GDP gap is a highly criticized ...
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an intergovernmental organization, defines a recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative output gap reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year. [23]
Further, a one period change, that is unusual over the course of one or two years, is often relegated to “noise”; an example is a worker strike or an isolated period of severe weather. The individual episodes of expansion/recession occur with changing duration and intensity over time.
Reagan was first elected in 1980, when the U.S. gross domestic product fell 0.3%, according to data from the World Bank. During his first year in office (1981) the GDP grew 2.5%, but during his ...
The study also said 28 states were in recession, with 16 at risk. The findings were based on unemployment figures and industrial production data. [28] In March 2008, financier Warren Buffett stated in a CNBC interview that by a "common sense definition", the U.S. economy was already in a recession. Buffett has also stated that the definition of ...