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An economic expansion is an upturn in the level of economic activity and of the goods and services available. It is a finite period of growth, often measured by a rise in real GDP, that marks a reversal from a previous period, for example, while recovering from a recession.
A cursory analysis of US inflation and unemployment data from 1953 to 1992 shows no single curve will fit the data, but there are three rough aggregations—1955–71, 1974–84, and 1985–92—each of which shows a general, downwards slope, but at three very different levels with the shifts occurring abruptly.
Expansions after World War II may be compared to each other much more easily than previous expansions because of these available data. The listed dates and durations are from the official chronology of the National Bureau of Economic Research. [1] The National Bureau of Economic Research dates expansions on a monthly basis.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an intergovernmental organization, defines a recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative output gap reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year. [23]
One way to calculate Gross Domestic Product, or total net output, is the expenditure method. The GDP essentially tells you how big the economy is. The larger the GDP value, the bigger the economy. The expenditure approach involves looking at four main components: Consumer Spending, Government Spending, Investment Spending, and Net Exports. [18]
Friedman and Phelps used models with no long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Instead of the Phillips curve they used models based on the natural rate of unemployment where expansionary monetary policy can only temporarily shift unemployment below the natural rate. Eventually, firms will adjust their prices and wages for ...
Reagan was first elected in 1980, when the U.S. gross domestic product fell 0.3%, according to data from the World Bank. During his first year in office (1981) the GDP grew 2.5%, but during his ...
Further, a one period change, that is unusual over the course of one or two years, is often relegated to “noise”; an example is a worker strike or an isolated period of severe weather. The individual episodes of expansion/recession occur with changing duration and intensity over time.