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If he had continued on that path, he would have been favored to win the race in 538's forecast by later this month — perhaps as soon as this week. Instead, Harris is the one who has modestly ...
The result is that Harris would win with 270 electoral votes. (Amina Brown for 538.) According to the Swing-O-Matic, if Harris improves upon Biden’s margin among white voters by only 2-3 points ...
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
[538 72] This is in reference to a phrase attributed to Archilochus: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing". [538 67] The name "Fivey" is a reference to the website's name, FiveThirtyEight. Fivey Fox is colored orange, white, and beige with comically sized black glasses and has white colored sock-like paws.
With less than 60 days before the 2024 presidential election — and on the eve of the first debate between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump — polls suggest that this ...
Odds for Donald Trump winning the presidential election jumped after his debate with Joe Biden. Here's how they moved after he debated Kamala Harris.
FiveThirtyEight said it suspended its forecast after President Biden dropped out of the presidential race. fivethirtyeight.com
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...