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Affective forecasting, also known as hedonic forecasting or the hedonic forecasting mechanism, is the prediction of one's affect (emotional state) in the future. [1] As a process that influences preferences , decisions , and behavior , affective forecasting is studied by both psychologists and economists , with broad applications.
Forecasting aims to predict what the future will look like, while planning imagines what the future could look like. Planning according to established principles - most notably since the early-20th century [ 2 ] - forms a core part of many professional occupations, particularly in fields such as management and business .
Because of this, the nature and evolution of foresight is an important topic in psychology. [1] Thinking about the future is studied under the label prospection. [2] Neuroscientific, developmental, and cognitive studies have identified many similarities to the human ability to recall past episodes. [3]
In the psychology of affective forecasting, the impact bias, a form of which is the durability bias, is the tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of future emotional states. [ 1 ]
Early warning signals for human caused wild cards should be looked for in Human communication and psychology as well as historical science. [9] Angela and Karlheinz Steinmüller use wild card imagination to enhance the resilience of enterprises by evoking out of the box thinking on positive and negative wild cards and creativity in handling these.
The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈ d ɛ l f aɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts.
The Elliott wave principle, or Elliott wave theory, is a form of technical analysis that helps financial traders analyze market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology and price levels, such as highs and lows, by looking for patterns in prices.
In business applications, the emphasis on understanding the behavior of opponents has been reduced while more attention is now paid to changes in the natural environment. At Royal Dutch Shell for example, scenario planning has been described as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world prior to formulating specific strategies.