Search results
Results from the WOW.Com Content Network
The original model uses an iterative three-stage modeling approach: Model identification and model selection: making sure that the variables are stationary, identifying seasonality in the dependent series (seasonally differencing it if necessary), and using plots of the autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) functions of the dependent time series to decide which (if any ...
Non-seasonal ARIMA models are usually denoted ARIMA(p, d, q) where parameters p, d, q are non-negative integers: p is the order (number of time lags) of the autoregressive model, d is the degree of differencing (the number of times the data have had past values subtracted), and q is the order of the moving-average model.
Polynomials of the lag operator can be used, and this is a common notation for ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models. For example, = = = (=) specifies an AR(p) model.A polynomial of lag operators is called a lag polynomial so that, for example, the ARMA model can be concisely specified as
Get AOL Mail for FREE! Manage your email like never before with travel, photo & document views. Personalize your inbox with themes & tabs. You've Got Mail!
ARMA is appropriate when a system is a function of a series of unobserved shocks (the MA or moving average part) as well as its own behavior. For example, stock prices may be shocked by fundamental information as well as exhibiting technical trending and mean-reversion effects due to market participants.
Forecast either to existing data (static forecast) or "ahead" (dynamic forecast, forward in time) with these ARMA terms. Apply the reverse filter operation (fractional integration to the same level d as in step 1) to the forecasted series, to return the forecast to the original problem units (e.g. turn the ersatz units back into Price).
However, to allow the receiver to be able to detect replay attacks, the message itself must contain data that assures that this same message can only be sent once (e.g. time stamp, sequence number or use of a one-time MAC). Otherwise an attacker could – without even understanding its content – record this message and play it back at a later ...
The check digit is found by taking the last digit times 1, the preceding digit times 2, the preceding digit times 3 etc., adding all these up and computing the sum modulo 10. For example, the CAS number of water is 7732-18-5: the checksum 5 is calculated as (8×1 + 1×2 + 2×3 + 3×4 + 7×5 + 7×6) = 105; 105 mod 10 = 5.