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The inputs for each of these variables and the ultimate interpretation of the risk premium value differs depending on the application as explained in the following sections. Regardless of the application, the market premium can be volatile as both comprising variables can be impacted independent of each other by both cyclical and abrupt changes ...
Interest rate risk analysis is almost always based on simulating movements in one or more yield curves using the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework to ensure that the yield curve movements are both consistent with current market yield curves and such that no riskless arbitrage is possible.
The market risk premium is determined from the slope of the SML. The relationship between β and required return is plotted on the security market line (SML), which shows expected return as a function of β. The intercept is the nominal risk-free rate available for the market, while the slope is the market premium, E(R m)− R f. The security ...
A bond's market value at different times in its life can be calculated. When the yield curve is steep, the bond is predicted to have a large capital gain in the first years before falling in price later. When the yield curve is flat, the capital gain is predicted to be much less, and there is little variability in the bond's total returns over ...
A narrowing of yield spreads (between bonds of different risk ratings) implies that the market is factoring in less risk, probably due to an improving economic outlook. The TED spread is one commonly-quoted credit spread. The difference between Baa-rated ten-year corporate bonds and ten-year Treasuries is another commonly-quoted credit spread. [2]
surprise shifts in the yield curve. As a practical matter, indices or spot or futures market prices may be used in place of macro-economic factors, which are reported at low frequency (e.g. monthly) and often with significant estimation errors. Market indices are sometimes derived by means of factor analysis. More direct "indices" that might be ...
Repricing risk is presented by assets and liabilities that reprice at different times and rates. The changes in interest rate either impacts on the asset returns or the liability costs. [ 2 ] Repricing risks arise from timing differences in the maturity for fixed-rate and repricing for floating-rate bank assets, liabilities and off-balance ...
Convexity is a risk management figure, used similarly to the way 'gamma' is used in derivatives risks management; it is a number used to manage the market risk a bond portfolio is exposed to. If the combined convexity and duration of a trading book is high, so is the risk. [ 16 ]