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The counterfactual thoughts for silver medalists tend to focus on how close they are to the gold medal, displaying upward counterfactually thinking, whereas bronze medalists tend to counterfactual think about how they could have not received a medal at all, displaying downward counterfactual thinking.
Downward counterfactuals, thinking about ways in which things could have gone worse, are linked with positive affect. Self-blame that assesses how a negative event could be avoided would be upward counterfactual thinking, so this theory hypothesizes that self-blame results in negative affect and poor adjustment.
This leads to hindsight bias in the form of retroactive pessimism to inhibit upward counterfactual thinking to succumb to an inevitable fate. [19] This memory inhibition , preventing a person from recalling what really happened may lead to failure to accept ones mistakes and therefore unable to learn and grow to prevent a similar mistake from ...
Most people enter military service “with the fundamental sense that they are good people and that they are doing this for good purposes, on the side of freedom and country and God,” said Dr. Wayne Jonas, a military physician for 24 years and president and CEO of the Samueli Institute, a non-profit health research organization.
These cases are known as upward counterfactuals, in contrast to downward counterfactuals, in which the counterfactual scenario is worse than actuality. [ 138 ] [ 136 ] Upward counterfactual thinking is usually experienced as unpleasant, since it presents the actual circumstances in a bad light.
Partially as a result, people experience more regret over outcomes that are easier to imagine, such as "near misses". The simulation heuristic was first theorized by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky as a specialized adaptation of the availability heuristic to explain counterfactual thinking and regret. [1]
Hindsight bias decreases one's rational thinking because of when a person experiences strong emotions, which in turn decreases rational thinking. Another negative consequence of hindsight bias is the interference of one's ability to learn from experience, as a person is unable to look back on past decisions and learn from mistakes.
On a recent episode of Decoding Retirement, Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders noted that investors are going to have to get reacclimated to President-elect Donald Trump ...