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The natural rate of unemployment is the name that was given to a key concept in the study of economic activity. Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps, tackling this 'human' problem in the 1960s, both received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for their work, and the development of the concept is cited as a main motivation behind the prize.
Unemployment rates historically are lower for those groups with higher levels of education. For example, in May 2016 the unemployment rate for workers over 25 years of age was 2.5% for college graduates, 5.1% for those with a high school diploma, and 7.1% for those without a high school diploma.
Unemployment in the US by State (June 2023) The list of U.S. states and territories by unemployment rate compares the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates by state and territory, sortable by name, rate, and change. Data are provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment publication.
In California, for instance, the state unemployment rate hit 5.3% in February, up 0.8% from a year ago and the highest in the nation. New Jersey's unemployment rate hit 4.8% in February, also up 0.8%.
Cyclical factors, such as government stimulus or austerity policies, cause the actual unemployment rate to vary around the natural rate. Economists debate the natural rate of unemployment. During February 2011, Federal Reserve economists estimated it may have increased from the historical rate of around 5% to as high as 6.7%.
In Germany and the United States, the unemployment rate reached about 25% in 1932. [140] In some towns and cities in the northeast of England, unemployment reached as high as 70%; the national unemployment level peaked at more than 22% in 1932. [141] Unemployment in Canada reached 27% at the depth of the Depression in 1933. [142]
This is because in the short run, there is generally an inverse relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate; as illustrated in the downward sloping short-run Phillips curve. In the long run, that relationship breaks down and the economy eventually returns to the natural rate of unemployment regardless of the inflation rate. [18]
The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) [1] is a theoretical level of unemployment below which inflation would be expected to rise. [2] It was first introduced as the NIRU (non-inflationary rate of unemployment) by Franco Modigliani and Lucas Papademos in 1975, as an improvement over the "natural rate of unemployment" concept, [3] [4] [5] which was proposed earlier by ...