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The data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight revealed Wednesday that his presidential race model now indicates that Trump has a 58.2% chance at winning the Electoral College in November ...
On June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight posted pollster rankings that updated and elaborated Silver's efforts from the 2008 election. Silver expanded the database to more than 4,700 election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings. [538 3] [13] Silver responded on 538: "Where's the ...
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
You can check which is which by looking them up on 538's pollster ratings page. If a pollster has a 3.0 rating, you should take it pretty seriously; if it has a 0.5 rating, it's not very reliable ...
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
Those models showed that either candidate could easily win the election. FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin each had Harris’s odds at 50%. ... That poll ended up being wrong, ...
J. Ann Selzer (born 1956) is an American political pollster and the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996. [1] [2] She was described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.