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The data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight revealed Wednesday that his presidential race model now indicates that Trump has a 58.2% chance at winning the Electoral College in November ...
Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
On June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight posted pollster rankings that updated and elaborated Silver's efforts from the 2008 election. Silver expanded the database to more than 4,700 election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings.
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin each had Harris ... there is a 60-in-100 chance either candidate wins over 300 Electoral College votes.” ... Ann Selzer’s surprise poll of ...
In their final prediction of the 2020 United States presidential election, FiveThirtyEight predicted that Joe Biden had an 89% chance of winning the election; [93] Biden won both the Electoral College and the popular vote. FiveThirtyEight only missed Florida, North Carolina, and Maine's 2nd congressional district in their projections.
That's why we do things like publish ratings of pollster ... had a bad year because they pointed to a close election and Trump looks like he will cruise to a 312-226 win in the Electoral College.
Maps and electoral vote counts for the 2012 presidential election. Our latest estimate has Obama at 281 electoral votes and Romney at 191.
You can check which is which by looking them up on 538's pollster ratings page. If a pollster has a 3.0 rating, you should take it pretty seriously; if it has a 0.5 rating, it's not very reliable ...