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After this change, Harris was able to surpass Trump in most polls, but her advantage decreased while Election Day was approaching. Eventually, Trump won the Presidency after winning in the seven swing states ( Pennsylvania , Georgia , North Carolina , Michigan , Arizona , Wisconsin and Nevada ), and winning the popular vote for the first time ...
In September 2014, Silver put into the public domain all of his pollster ratings, [538 6] as well as descriptive summary data for all of the more than 6,600 polls in his data collection for the final three weeks of U.S. presidential primaries and general elections, state governor elections, and U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress elections for the ...
After departing FiveThirtyEight amid widespread layoffs at Disney/ABC News in May 2023, [2] Silver began publishing on his personal blog, Silver Bulletin. [ 3 ] [ 104 ] Silver retained the IP of 538's election forecasting model as he left, [ 105 ] and in June 2024, released his own election forecasting model at Silver Bulletin , using ...
ABC News project 538: The final poll shows Harris with a 48.0% to 46.8% edge over Trump. 270towin : Showing a composite of the latest national polls , Harris currently leads Trump by 1.2%.
During the 2016 election, Silver’s model suggested a likely victory for Hillary Clinton but gave Trump around a 30% chance of winning – much higher than most other prognosticators. Election ...
Renowned election guru Nate Silver called the race for the White House a “pure toss-up” Sunday as he gave ex-President Donald Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in his ...
Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
More polls continue to show the U.S. presidential candidates separated by the thinnest of margins with Election Day less than 50 days away. Prognosticator Nate Silver on Tuesday shared data that ...