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Since the probabilities must satisfy p 1 + ⋅⋅⋅ + p k = 1, it is natural to interpret E[X] as a weighted average of the x i values, with weights given by their probabilities p i. In the special case that all possible outcomes are equiprobable (that is, p 1 = ⋅⋅⋅ = p k), the weighted average is given by the standard average. In the ...
The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be as large as possible, and −0.22 is indeed larger than −1.6. If one treats the truth or falsity of the prediction as a variable x with value 1 or 0 respectively, and the expressed probability as p , then one can write the logarithmic scoring rule as x ln( p ) + (1 − ...
Indexing and classification methods to assist with information retrieval have a long history dating back to the earliest libraries and collections however systematic evaluation of their effectiveness began in earnest in the 1950s with the rapid expansion in research production across military, government and education and the introduction of computerised catalogues.
To apply AIC in practice, we start with a set of candidate models, and then find the models' corresponding AIC values. There will almost always be information lost due to using a candidate model to represent the "true model," i.e. the process that generated the data.
The interpretation of a p-value is dependent upon stopping rule and definition of multiple comparison. The former often changes during the course of a study and the latter is unavoidably ambiguous. (i.e. "p values depend on both the (data) observed and on the other possible (data) that might have been observed but weren't"). [69]
The normal probability plot is formed by plotting the sorted data vs. an approximation to the means or medians of the corresponding order statistics; see rankit.Some plot the data on the vertical axis; [1] others plot the data on the horizontal axis.
In addition to the mathematical convenience from this, the adding process of log-likelihood has an intuitive interpretation, as often expressed as "support" from the data. When the parameters are estimated using the log-likelihood for the maximum likelihood estimation, each data point is used by being added to the total log-likelihood.
The terms "distribution" and "family" are often used loosely: Specifically, an exponential family is a set of distributions, where the specific distribution varies with the parameter; [a] however, a parametric family of distributions is often referred to as "a distribution" (like "the normal distribution", meaning "the family of normal distributions"), and the set of all exponential families ...